Week of Feb 26 – Mar 1, 2026

Florida
Swing
Kicks Off

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Beach Gardens for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National — first stop of the Florida Swing. Get the latest odds, stat-backed picks, and expert analysis.

Live Favorites
Cognizant Classic 2026
📍 PGA National · Feb 26–Mar 1 · $9.6M Purse
Shane Lowry FAV
🇮🇪 Ireland
+1200
Ryan Gerard BB PICK
🇺🇸 United States
+1600
Nicolai Højgaard
🇩🇰 Denmark
+2000
Adam Scott
🇦🇺 Australia
+2200
Brooks Koepka
🇺🇸 United States
+3000
This Week
PGA National – Champion Course
|
Par 71 · 7,223 yds
|
Water on 15/18 holes
|
"Bear Trap" holes 15–17
|
⛅ Rain + Wind Fri
⚡ Breaking
Ben Griffin WD from Cognizant Classic  •  Jacob Bridgeman also WD after Genesis win  •  Shane Lowry moves to +1200 favorite  •  No OWGR Top-20 players in this week's field  •  Brooks Koepka enters at +3000  •  3 of last 4 Cognizant champs were 100-1 or longer  •  Arnold Palmer Invitational next: Mar 5 at Bay Hill  •  Ben Griffin WD from Cognizant Classic  •  Jacob Bridgeman also WD after Genesis win  •  Shane Lowry moves to +1200 favorite  •  No OWGR Top-20 players in this week's field  •  Brooks Koepka enters at +3000  •  3 of last 4 Cognizant champs were 100-1 or longer  •  Arnold Palmer Invitational next: Mar 5 at Bay Hill  • 
Latest News
All Stories →
All
Analysis
Betting
Picks
Results
🏆
Analysis
Florida Swing Preview: Why the Cognizant Classic Produces Longshot Winners More Than Any Event on Tour

PGA National humbles favorites every year. Three of the past four champions came in at 100-1 or longer. Click to read the full breakdown.

BogeyBeats StaffFeb 23, 20268 min
🚨
Breaking
Griffin & Bridgeman Both WD — Field Wide Open at PGA National
Feb 23, 20263 min
💰
Betting
Odds Tracker: Lowry to +1200 After Key Withdrawals Shake the Board
Feb 23, 20265 min
📊
Picks
Model Loves Nicolai Højgaard: Elite Ball-Striking + Two Recent Top-5s Spell Value at +2500
Feb 23, 20266 min
🌲
Masters Preview
Masters 2026 Early Lines: Scheffler -260, McIlroy Seeks the Career Grand Slam
Feb 21, 20267 min
Recap
Genesis Recap: Bridgeman Wins at Riviera, Etches Name in PGA Tour History
Feb 17, 20264 min
BogeyBeats Picks
All Picks →

Our model weights SG: Approach, course history, proximity 150–200 yds, and recent form. Click any card for the full write-up.

⭐ Outright Win · Click to Read
Nicolai Højgaard
+2500
Elite ball-striking, two Top-5s in last three starts. Our model ranks him as the true favorite. Bermudagrass suits his approach game.
Top-5 SG: App2× Top-5 (L3)Bermuda specialist
💰 Value Play
Adam Scott
+2200
Former Cognizant winner leading the field in SG: T2G in 2026. Solo-4th last week at Genesis. Course familiarity + elite form = value.
#1 SG: T2G 2026Former ChampSolo-4th L/W
🚀 Longshot · Click to Read
Sam Ryder
+10000
Two career Top-10s at PGA National. Ranks 3rd in field in both SG: Approach AND Putting. This course rewards precision.
2× Top-10 here#3 SG: App#3 SG: Putt
All
Analysis
Betting
Picks
Results
🏆
Analysis
Florida Swing Preview: Why the Cognizant Classic Produces Longshot Winners More Than Any Event on Tour

Three of the past four champions came in at 100-1 or longer. Here's how to navigate the carnage at PGA National.

BogeyBeats StaffFeb 23, 20268 min
🚨
Breaking
Griffin & Bridgeman Both WD — Field Wide Open at PGA National
Feb 23, 20263 min
💰
Betting
Odds Tracker: Lowry to +1200 After Key Withdrawals Shake the Board
Feb 23, 20265 min
📊
Picks
Model Loves Nicolai Højgaard: Elite Ball-Striking + Two Recent Top-5s at +2500
Feb 23, 20266 min
🌲
Masters Preview
Masters 2026 Early Lines: Scheffler -260, McIlroy Seeks the Career Grand Slam
Feb 21, 20267 min
🔭
Tournament
THE PLAYERS: Early Odds & Key Players to Watch at TPC Sawgrass
Feb 22, 20264 min
⚠️
Course Strategy
The Bear Trap Decoded: How Holes 15–17 at PGA National Destroy Scorecards
Feb 20, 20265 min
Recap
Genesis Recap: Bridgeman Wins at Riviera in Career-Defining Performance
Feb 17, 20264 min
Back to News

🎯 This Week's Picks

1
N. Højgaard WIN
Outright · FanDuel
+2500
2
Adam Scott VALUE
Outright · DraftKings
+2200
3
Sam Ryder LONG
Outright · FanDuel
+10000

📅 Up Next

Mar
5
Arnold Palmer Inv.
Bay Hill, FL
RNK
Player
FanDuel
DraftKings
Hard Rock
1
Shane Lowry 🇮🇪
2019 Open Champion · World Rank #28
+1200
+1200
+1300
2
Ryan Gerard 🇺🇸 BB PICK
2× runner-up 2026 · #18 SG: T2G
+1600
+1800
+1600
3
Nicolai Højgaard 🇩🇰 VALUE
2× Top-5 last 3 starts · Elite SG: App
+2000
+2200
+2000
4
Rasmus Højgaard 🇩🇰
Twin brother · Tour win in 2025
+2000
+2000
+2200
5
Adam Scott 🇦🇺 VALUE
Former Cognizant champion · #1 SG: T2G 2026
+2200
+2200
+2500
6
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
Back on PGA Tour · 5× major champion
+3000
+3200
+3000
7
Daniel Berger 🇺🇸 SLEEPER
Course history · strong iron play
+3300
+3500
+3300
8
Will Zalatoris 🇺🇸
Returning from injury · elite approach
+4000
+4000
+3800
9
Sepp Straka 🇦🇹
Strong Bermuda putter · T6 Phoenix
+4500
+4500
+5000
10
Harris English 🇺🇸
Past Cognizant champion · Florida native
+6000
+6000
+6500
11
Sam Ryder 🇺🇸 BB LONGSHOT
2× Top-10 PGA National · elite precision
+10000
+10000
+9000

Odds updated Feb 23, 2026. Must be 21+. Please bet responsibly. 1-800-GAMBLER.

🧠
How Our Model Works
We combine strokes-gained data from the past 24 rounds with course-specific stats — weighting heavily on SG: Approach and putting on Bermudagrass — then overlay current Vegas lines to identify positive expected value plays.

Cognizant Classic — Feb 26–Mar 1

⭐ Outright Win · Click to Read
Nicolai Højgaard
+2500
Elite ball-striking, two Top-5 finishes in last three starts. Model ranks him as the true favorite despite market price. Bermudagrass greens and PGA National's precision demands suit him perfectly.
Top-5 SG: App2× Top-5 (L3)Bermuda specialistFresh legs
💰 Value Play
Adam Scott
+2200
Former Cognizant Classic champion leading the entire field in SG: Tee-to-Green in 2026. Solo-4th last week at Genesis. Course familiarity plus elite form equals screaming value.
#1 SG: T2G 2026Former ChampSolo-4th L/WCourse IQ
🚀 Longshot · Click to Read
Sam Ryder
+10000
Two career Top-10s at PGA National. Ranks 3rd in this field in both SG: Approach AND SG: Putting in 2026. At 100-1, this is exactly the type of profile that wins here.
2× Top-10 here#3 SG: App#3 SG: Putt100-1 value

Arnold Palmer Invitational — Mar 5 (Early Looks)

⭐ Early Outright
Scottie Scheffler
+350
Two-time Bay Hill winner who treats this course like a second home. Heavy favorite, but at +350, still worth a small outright unit given his absolute dominance in 2026.
2× Bay Hill WinnerWorld #1
💰 Early Value
Collin Morikawa
+1800
Ball-striking machine who has improved his Bermudagrass putting in 2026. Bay Hill sets up for his left-to-right fade. T4 at Pebble Beach confirmed elite current form.
Elite SG: AppT4 Pebble 2026
🚀 Early Longshot
Shane Lowry
+4500
If Lowry runs hot at PGA National this week, he arrives at Bay Hill with serious momentum. Multiple Top-10s on Florida courses and thrives in wind — a two-tournament parlay target.
Wind specialistFlorida form
SG: Total Leaderboard
RNK
Player
SG: Tot
SG: T2G
SG: App
SG: OTT
SG: Putt
1
Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
17 rounds · 2 wins
+4.21
+3.18
+1.72
+0.88
+1.03
2
Adam Scott 🇦🇺
14 rounds · Solo-4th Genesis
+3.44
+3.02
+1.41
+0.76
+0.42
3
Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸
16 rounds · 2 Top-5s
+2.98
+2.81
+1.88
+0.44
+0.17
4
Nicolai Højgaard 🇩🇰
14 rounds · 2 Top-5s
+2.71
+2.55
+1.64
+0.61
+0.16
5
Shane Lowry 🇮🇪
16 rounds · 1 Top-10
+2.44
+2.02
+1.12
+0.55
+0.42
6
Sam Ryder 🇺🇸
16 rounds · 1 Top-10
+2.18
+1.91
+1.09
+0.52
+0.27
7
Ryan Gerard 🇺🇸
18 rounds · 2 Top-5s
+2.04
+1.88
+0.97
+0.66
+0.16
8
Daniel Berger 🇺🇸
12 rounds · 1 Top-10
+1.92
+1.74
+0.88
+0.61
+0.18
9
Brooks Koepka 🇺🇸
8 rounds · returning
+1.55
+1.42
+0.74
+0.48
+0.13
10
Will Zalatoris 🇺🇸
10 rounds · returning from injury
+1.34
+1.28
+0.91
+0.22
-0.06

SG: T2G = Tee-to-Green · App = Approach · OTT = Off the Tee · Putt = Putting. Stats through Genesis Invitational, Feb 17, 2026.

Jan
15
Sony Open in Hawaii
📍 Waialae CC · Honolulu, HI✅ Completed
$8.9M
Done
Jan
22
The American Express
📍 PGA West · La Quinta, CA✅ Completed
$8.7M
Done
Jan
29
Farmers Insurance Open
📍 Torrey Pines · La Jolla, CA✅ Completed
$9.4M
Done
Feb
5
WM Phoenix Open
📍 TPC Scottsdale · Scottsdale, AZ✅ Completed
$20M
Done
Feb
12
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
📍 Pebble Beach GL · Pebble Beach, CA✅ Completed
$9.2M
Done
Feb
19
The Genesis Invitational
📍 Riviera CC · Pacific Palisades, CA✅ Winner: Jacob Bridgeman
$20M
Done
Feb
26
Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
📍 PGA National (Champion) · Palm Beach Gardens, FLFav: Shane Lowry +1200⛅ Rain + wind Friday
$9.6M
This Week
Mar
5
Arnold Palmer Invitational
📍 Bay Hill Club & Lodge · Orlando, FLEarly Fav: Scheffler +350
$20M
Upcoming
Mar
12
THE PLAYERS Championship
📍 TPC Sawgrass · Ponte Vedra Beach, FLGolf's unofficial fifth major
$25M
Upcoming
Apr
9
Masters Tournament
📍 Augusta National GC · Augusta, GAEarly Fav: Scheffler -260
$18M
Upcoming
May
14
PGA Championship
📍 Quail Hollow Club · Charlotte, NC
$18M
Upcoming
Jun
11
U.S. Open
📍 Oakmont CC · Oakmont, PA
$21.5M
Upcoming
Our Story · Est. 2026

Born on the Fairway,
Built for the Fan

BogeyBeats started with one college student, one deep obsession, and a conviction that golf deserved better coverage — honest, data-driven, and written by someone who actually plays.

Hi, I'm Michael Aroyan

I came to golf late. Three, maybe four years ago — give or take a few shanked drives and rounds I'd rather forget. And yet somehow, in that time, this game has become the most important thing in my life outside of school. I'm a junior at UC Santa Barbara, I work at The Valley Club of Montecito, and I'm completely, irreversibly hooked on golf.

It started the way it always does: a casual round with friends, a score I'd rather not share, and that inexplicable pull to go back out again the very next morning. Something about this game got inside me and refused to leave. The precision. The silence. The way it humbles you differently every single time, no matter how many rounds you play. I didn't choose to fall in love with golf — it just happened, and I have no interest in fighting it.

"Golf is the only sport where you can play the same course a hundred times and feel like it's humbling you in a completely new way each time. There's no ceiling to how much you can learn — and that's exactly what keeps pulling me back out every single week." — Michael Aroyan

The Valley Club of Montecito

Working at The Valley Club of Montecito has been one of the best things that has ever happened to me. Nestled into the sun-drenched foothills above Santa Barbara with views of the Pacific that make you forget whatever you shot on the back nine, Montecito is the kind of place that deepens your respect for what golf actually is — not just a sport, but a culture, a craft, and a community.

Every shift there teaches me something I couldn't learn from a textbook or a stats spreadsheet. The rhythm of a golf course through the day. The way morning dew changes how the ball rolls out. The culture of the clubhouse, the conversations between members, the quiet professionalism that goes into making a great golf experience feel effortless. I want to spend my career in this industry, and working at Montecito has only made that desire stronger.

Going to the Events

I don't just watch golf from a couch — I go. And those experiences have shaped how I think about the game more than anything else. Standing inside the ropes at Riviera during the Genesis Invitational, one of the most architecturally perfect golf courses in the world, gives you a reverence for the game's history that no broadcast can replicate. Walking those fairways, you can feel why the pros love it here.

The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale is a completely different beast — the loudest, most unhinged atmosphere in professional sports, where the 16th hole turns into something that belongs more at a concert than a golf tournament. It's electric in a way that makes you understand why people fall in love with this sport from a completely different angle.

Pebble Beach during the Pro-Am is something else entirely. Standing on the clifftops watching fog roll in off Stillwater Cove while the Pacific glitters below — it's the most beautiful place I've ever watched golf, and I've thought about it nearly every day since. And then there's the U.S. Open — the most demanding, unforgiving major in the sport. Watching the world's best players fight impossible rough and lightning-fast greens gave me a profound respect for what these professionals actually endure. That respect bleeds into every pick and every word on BogeyBeats.

Why I Built BogeyBeats

I built BogeyBeats because I was frustrated. Most golf coverage is either too technical for casual fans or too shallow for people who actually want to understand what's happening on the course. I wanted something in the middle — smart, data-backed analysis written by someone who plays the game, loves it, and has stood on those fairways.

The analytics side of golf is what really captured me. Strokes gained is one of the most powerful tools in sports analytics, and once I started seeing the game through that lens — understanding not just who won, but why, and what the numbers were actually telling us about who should win — I couldn't stop. I started building models. I started making picks. And I started realizing I was actually decent at it.

BogeyBeats is the natural output of all of it. I'm a junior at UCSB with a golf bag in my car, a shift at one of California's great private clubs, and a tab permanently open to the latest SG data. I want to spend my life inside the ropes — working in professional golf, following the tour, building something in this sport. This site is chapter one of that story.

Thanks for being here. Now let's go find some winners.

🏌️

"I want to spend my life in and around this game. BogeyBeats is the first chapter of that."

— Michael Aroyan · Founder, BogeyBeats

📋 Quick Facts

School
UC Santa Barbara · Class of 2027
Work
The Valley Club of Montecito, Santa Barbara, CA
Playing
3–4 years · pure love of the game
Dream
A career in professional golf
Style
Course-nerd meets stats-obsessive

🏆 Events Attended

⛳ Genesis Invitational · Riviera 🏆 U.S. Open 🎉 Waste Management Phoenix Open 🌊 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am